All judgments, except for faith, should be based on data.

The statement by statistician W. Edwards Deming was put at the beginning of the "Innovative Drug Global BD Cooperation Session 1-2-3" at the first Global Conference on New Drugs (CPIC 2026) by Xun Zhenming, the former head of global biostatistics and data management at the First Three Communist Party of China and a consultant for collaborative data management.

This statistical expert, who has worked for multinational pharmaceutical companies for over 30 years and has personally participated or led dozens of BD projects, is well aware that what ultimately needs to be passed at the BD negotiation table is not business relations, but data relations.

The data of innovative drug BD transactions in China is indeed impressive, and "billion dollar large orders" frequently emerge.

According to the Arterial Think Tank, the number of BD transactions for innovative drugs in China in the first half of 2026 has reached about 240, accounting for 71% of the total for the whole year of 2025; The total transaction amount is approximately 106.3 billion US dollars, approaching the level of 135.655 billion US dollars for the whole year of 2025.

In the first half of this year, among the top 10 innovative drug BD transactions worldwide, 8 sellers were from China. Among them, in January of this year, the strategic cooperation between Shiyao Group and AstraZeneca reached a potential total value of 18.5 billion US dollars; In May of this year, Hengrui Pharmaceutical reached a potential licensing agreement with BMS worth approximately $15.2 billion, and the potential cooperation between Xinda Biotechnology and Pfizer could reach up to $10.5 billion.

But the other side of numbers is also worth paying attention to.

According to BIO Partnering data, there are currently as many as 2504 biotech companies seeking external authorization, while only 986 buyers are interested in introducing assets, with sellers being 2.5 times the number of buyers. This is a typical 'buyer's market'.

The special feature of CPIC 2026 is that the BD decision-makers of multinational giants such as Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, BMS, etc. have collectively come to the doorstep of Chinese companies for the first time.

In the past, Chinese medical professionals had to cross the ocean to San Francisco to attend the JPM conference and strive for a few minutes of chance encounter communication in the hallway; Now, the negotiation table has moved to Shanghai. The change of home ground not only brings about geographical convenience, but also a subtle adjustment of discourse power structure.

However, when thousands of sellers flock to the same window, the key variables that determine the direction of the transaction have quietly shifted from "asset quality" to "credibility of evidence and efficiency of communication". Amidst the hustle and bustle, a game of standards, trust, and patience is unfolding.

01. Temperature difference of down payment

Shift your focus away from the top celebrity projects, and more structural issues will emerge.  
According to Citeline and Evaluate data from Norstella, 75% of the assets signed in the first half of 2026 are in the early or incomplete concept validation stage. Overseas authorized assets are still mainly based on early projects before Phase II clinical trials. To understand this structure, we need to return to the buyer's demand logic.  

Cheng Erdong, Norstella Asia Pacific Consulting Business Manager

Multinational pharmaceutical companies are facing urgent pressure from the patent cliff and need to lock in greater opportunities, so they tend to expand their transactions to more therapeutic fields, technological routes, or platform systems, "analyzed Cheng Erdong, head of consulting business at Norstella Asia Pacific.  

But before making significant financial commitments, buyers must fully verify the data quality and global accessibility of assets. Initial investments should be made around core assets, and after reaching agreed upon evidence milestones, broader platform equity or additional joint development funds can be unlocked. This design breaks down major decisions into conditional phased choices, effectively controlling early-stage risks without sacrificing long-term opportunities

This judgment has been confirmed in the transaction data. The data shared by Cheng Erdong shows that in the past two years, the median proportion of down payments in the total amount of innovative drug BD transactions in China is about 5%, while in US transactions, this figure is about 19% (with different statistical standards).  

This set of numbers reflects an awkward reality that the vast majority of the value of China's cross-border transactions is placed in subsequent options and milestone payments, and whether they can be realized depends entirely on the quality of evidence generated.  

This logic, when implemented in practice, poses a more direct test for Chinese biotech companies facing cash flow constraints. Although the down payment can temporarily quench the thirst for funds, the bulk of the transaction still depends on future milestone payments. The core variables for smoothly advancing to the next station are clinical execution and regulatory communication skills.  

02. When 'Chinese data' meets' global standards'

If the trading structure reflects the allocation of chips in market games, then the standard of evidence is the core lifeline that determines whether chips can be redeemed.  

Cheng Erdong pointed out that when evaluating assets, buyers first focus on the strategic fit with their own product portfolio, followed by the strength of evidence, including whether existing evidence still holds in the global context, whether the competitive landscape, standard treatment, and control group have changed after 5 years; Another aspect is transaction readiness, involving equity, intellectual property, CMC, and other aspects.  

According to Citeline and Evaluate data from Norstella, about 64% of assets have human data available at the time of trading, about 30% have more comprehensive clinical evidence, and only 6% have not yet entered human trials. But in the existing human data, about 73% only come from China, and the proportion of truly global concept validation that can be called "evidence ready" is only 20%.

This means that only one out of every five Chinese assets entering negotiations has the persuasive power of "global evidence" in the eyes of the buyer. Cheng Erdong pointed out that after overseas buyers acquire assets, they must verify the applicability of Chinese clinical data to the European and American markets, such as whether the selection of reference drugs is based on target market standards, whether biomarker threshold values and patient population definitions are representative, and whether product features can support local clinical practices.

The essence of these issues points to a core consideration, which is the global portability of data, that is, whether Chinese data can be accepted by overseas regulatory agencies and converted into registration evidence. This is precisely the key link that buyers need to de risk in due diligence.

Merely stating that 'China's data is good' is not enough, "Cheng Erdong emphasized." It is also necessary to clarify how these data will be migrated, what bridging data needs to be supplemented, in which populations they will be revalidated, and how they will be embedded in the development path of the target country.

Xun Zhenming proposed more specific examination standards from the perspective of the buyer. He pointed out that from preclinical stage to concept validation stage to registration stage, the requirements for evidence are progressively advanced: the rationality of the target and mechanism must be demonstrated before clinical stage; Pay attention to safety, dosage, and preliminary efficacy after the first human trial; During the concept validation phase, buyers will further examine patient selection, endpoint indicators, depth of relief, and reproducibility. The closer an asset is to the registration stage, the more directly its valuation is determined by research design, statistical assumptions, and database quality.  

Xun Zhenming, former head of global biostatistics and data management at the First Three Communist Party and consultant of freehand data statistics

BD evaluation cannot rely solely on an excellent result chart or a significant P-value. ”Xun Zhenming said, "From the buyer's experience, the evaluation team will not stop at the slides and research reports provided by the seller. Their statistical, clinical, and data teams will review key data from scratch one by one, and if necessary, redo the analysis themselves, because this set of data will ultimately face independent review by regulatory agencies. The core of the buyer's judgment is not whether the story sounds good, but whether the same conclusion can be drawn after the same set of data is handed over to regulatory agencies

The core of data preparation lies not in volume, but in traceability, reproducibility, and ability to withstand independent verification. This is not only a requirement for due diligence, but also a fundamental prerequisite for ultimately facing regulatory scrutiny.  

03. From "self talk" to "precise dialogue"

In fact, in a buyer's market pattern, high-quality supply is not scarce. What is scarce is the ability to quickly establish trust through communication in a massive number of projects.

At the same time, transaction structures are becoming increasingly complex. Although single asset trading still accounts for more than half, portfolio trading with options has significantly increased, and platform cooperation and product portfolio are becoming routine operations.

For example, in the current hottest GLP-1 field, buyers are increasingly inclined to comprehensively examine the sustained output capacity of the technology platform, the dosing cycle (weekly, monthly, and even longer cycles), and the potential for asset expansion from weight loss to broader indications such as MASH, kidney disease, cardiovascular metabolism, etc.

The cooperation between AstraZeneca and Shiyao Group mentioned above is a typical case. Both parties rely on the proprietary sustained-release drug delivery technology platform and peptide drug AI discovery platform of Shiyao Group to jointly develop innovative long-acting peptide drugs. The transaction covers a clinically ready long-acting GLP-1/GIP dual target agonist project SYH2082, three preclinical projects, and four new projects.

The expansion of transaction scope directly increases the difficulty of communication. After the scope of the transaction expands, the seller needs to provide clear differentiation, globally applicable evidence, and long-term value paths, "Cheng Erdong pointed out.

In this context, efficient communication has evolved from "icing on the cake" to "winning and losing hands".

Xia Mingde, founder, chairman, and CEO of Innolux Pharmaceuticals, succinctly summarized effective communication as the "two minute elevator rule" in an interview with Xieyi Jun, which means conveying three levels of information to potential buyers in a very short period of time: what are the core highlights of the project, which clinical needs are not covered by standard therapies, and why it coincides with the other party's strategic layout.

Knowing oneself and knowing the enemy is the key to winning a hundred battles. Your project happens to meet the needs of the other party, and in communication, it is crucial to explain the scientificity and business plan in a concise manner, highlighting differentiation, "said Xia Mingde. Several BD executives from multinational pharmaceutical companies have also expressed similar views.

Lin Jian, Senior Director of External Innovation at Johnson&Johnson, stated that Johnson&Johnson adopts a unified global evaluation standard for all licensed projects, with the core being differentiation. Products must have the potential to become the best or first in their class, and it is difficult to be selected if they fall into the second tier.

Chen Dong, Executive Director of External Innovation at AbbVie, said, "In recent years, the international cooperation volume on innovation has significantly increased, but the underlying logic of project evaluation has not changed, that is, to first check whether the disease field matches the company's strategy, then to see if it does not meet the clinical needs, and finally to see if the project can solve this demand and provide better treatment options for patients. By clarifying these three factors, we can support a BD transaction. ”

When supply side congestion becomes the norm, communication efficiency itself is a core competitiveness. Biotech that can generate global evidence that can withstand independent review and accurately deliver differentiated value in a very short period of time is likely to stand out in the buyer's market.

CPIC 2026 has built a valuable window, providing an exclusive one-on-one business appointment system. Participants rely on the platform to accurately match resources and efficiently promote cooperation through one-on-one negotiation opportunities. As of the closing of the conference, the number of meetings and negotiations has exceeded 4000.

But after the window, the real problem lies in who can convert "Chinese data" into "global evidence", who can achieve precise communication and docking, which directly determines whether the home advantage can ultimately be realized as a down payment and long-term cooperation condition.