万亿礼来,再打一场“顺风局”
Update time:
2026-08-11 09:26
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After breaking through the trillion yuan market value in 2025, Lilly is rapidly advancing towards the milestone of generating billions of yuan in revenue. The recently released Q2 2026 financial report proves that this MNC has such potential.
According to the announcement, Lilly's revenue for the second quarter was $22.974 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48%; Net profit was 7.095 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 25%. Both data have crushed market expectations. Based on this, Lilly has also raised its annual sales for 2026 to between $85 billion and $87 billion. According to the news, the company's stock price rose by over 7% before the market opened.
This is already a 'drama' staged by Lilly for several consecutive quarters. But this time it's a bit different.
On the same day, old rival Novo Nordisk also released its second quarter report. In the first half of the year, Novo Nordisk's total revenue was approximately $27.38 billion, while Eli Lilly's was $42.773 billion. The gap between the two companies, once known as the "GLP-1 duo," has widened to over $15 billion.
Li Lai CEO Dai Wenrui said excitedly, "After 150 years, Li Lai's future has never been so bright.
The core of this story is a drug called tilpotide. However, around this drug, Lilly is building a super empire spanning diabetes, weight loss, cancer, neuroscience, vaccines, and even psychedelic drugs.
01. "Excellent Quarter"
22.974 billion US dollars, this is Lilly's revenue figure for the second quarter of 2026.
What concept? This is a full $7.4 billion more than the same period last year, an increase of 48%. The cumulative revenue in the first half of the year was 42.773 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 51%. Such a scale can still maintain such a rapid growth rate, and there are almost no second companies in the entire pharmaceutical industry.
The engine that drives all of this is Tilpotide.
This drug, which has both the hypoglycemic version of Mounjaro and the weight reducing version of Zepbound, contributed a total of $14.871 billion in Q2, accounting for nearly 65% of total revenue. In the first half of the year, the cumulative amount was 27.693 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 88%.
Among them, the hypoglycemic version of Mounjaro sold 9.943 billion US dollars in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 91%; The lightweight version of Zepbound sold for $4.928 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46%. The former's revenue outside the United States surged by 172% year-on-year, and the Chinese market benefited from being included in the national medical insurance catalog, resulting in a rapid increase in sales.
Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, a competitor of Tilpotide, seems to be somewhat weak. In the first half of the year, the total revenue of all formulations of semaglutide was approximately 17.3 billion US dollars. This means that the gap has been widened to over 10 billion US dollars by Tilpotide.
You should know that just a year ago, these two drugs were still fighting endlessly for the throne of "Medicine King". In the second quarter of 2025, the single quarter sales of Tilpotide reached $8.58 billion, surpassing the historic sales of $8.034 billion of Smeaglutide. Afterwards, the gap widened and there was no turning back.
In addition to Tilpotide, Lilly's product portfolio is also quietly expanding.
On April 1st of this year, Eli Lilly launched the world's first approved oral small molecule non peptide GLP-1 receptor agonist - Ovagliflozin (trade name Foundayo). In the first quarter of its listing, it sold for $98 million. Although still small in size, the convenience of oral dosage forms means that it has the potential to open up a whole new user base.
The revenue of tumor drug Jaypira in the second quarter was 192 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 56%. Kisunla, an Alzheimer's disease drug, earned $167 million in revenue. Immune drug Ebglyss generated revenue of $201 million, a year-on-year increase of 131%. These "second tier" products, although temporarily unable to be compared to Tilpotide, are building a diversified source of income for Lilly beyond weight loss.
Based on its strong performance in the second quarter, Eli Lilly has once again raised its full year revenue guidance from $82-85 billion to $85-87 billion. This is already the second time this year that it has been raised.
But there are also hidden concerns.
The financial report shows that the actual price of Zepbound in the US market has decreased by about 9% due to proactive price reductions and rebate discounts. Although sales increased by 60%, completely offsetting the pressure on the price side, the shadow of the price war still looms over the entire GLP-1 track.
The challenge also comes from the legal attacks of competitors. Shortly before the release of its financial report, Novo Nordisk filed a lawsuit in the US federal court, accusing Lilly of engaging in misleading advertising.
Nevertheless, Wall Street's response to this financial report remains enthusiastic. Citigroup analysts stated in a research report that this was a 'remarkable quarter' for Lilly. Analysts from Leerink Partners have raised Lilly's 12-month target price by 6% to $1309.
02. The Road to the "Medicine King"
Tilpotide was not born as the "king of medicine".
Back in May 2022, when the FDA first approved tilporide (trade name: Mounjaro) for the treatment of adult type 2 diabetes, the market did not pay much attention. At that time, Novo Nordisk's Smeglutide had been working hard at the GLP-1 track for many years - it was approved as an indication for diabetes in 2017, and won the indication for weight loss in 2021.
In the field of GLP-1, Novo Nordisk is an absolute pioneer. Li Lai is a pursuer.
But Lilly made a crucial choice: instead of following the single target route of semaglutide, they chose GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonists. GIP is another type of intestinal stimulating hormone that works synergistically with GLP-1, theoretically leading to stronger hypoglycemic and weight loss effects.
This choice was later proven to be decisive.
In November 2023, the FDA approved teriparatide for long-term weight management in overweight adults with obesity or at least one comorbidity. The lightweight version of Zepbound has officially debuted.
From that moment on, Lilly's offensive was fully launched.
Firstly, there is a price war. At the beginning of the approval of the weight loss indication, Eli Lilly set the monthly treatment cost of Zepbound at $1060, which was about 20% lower than the price of $1349 for semaglutide at that time.
Next is the channel war. In early 2024, Lilly launched its direct sales platform LillyDirect, which allows users to obtain prescriptions online and enjoy drug delivery services, accurately entering the self paying user market. By the third quarter of 2025, approximately 75% of Terpotide's revenue outside the United States will come from patients who purchase weight loss indications at their own expense. Novo Nordisk did not launch a similar online platform, NovoCare, until March 2025.
But the most fatal thing is the "rigidity" of clinical data.
Lilly has proactively designed a "head to head" clinical trial called SURMUNT-5, which directly compares the weight loss effects of tilpotide and semaglutide. In December 2024, the results were announced - the average weight loss of the tiltrotide group was 20.2%, and the semaglutide group was 13.7%. Converted into kilograms, the former decreased by 22.8 kilograms, while the latter decreased by 15.0 kilograms. This study was later published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
Once the data is released, the winner has been determined.
In the second quarter of 2025, the single quarter sales of Tilpotide reached 8.58 billion US dollars, surpassing Simeglutide's 8.034 billion US dollars for the first time. By the first half of 2026, the gap has widened to over 10 billion US dollars.
But the story of Tilpotide is far from over.
Lilly is promoting the next generation of weight loss drug retatrutide - a three target agonist (GLP-1/GIP/glucagon) with positive Phase III clinical data, and plans to submit a marketing application by 2027. This means that in addition to the use of tiltrotide, Lilly is already preparing for the 'post tiltrotide era'.
In January 2025, Tilpotide was officially launched in China under the brand name "Mufengda". This is the first and only GIP/GLP-1 dual receptor agonist approved for type 2 diabetes and long-term weight management in China. In the first half of the year, Lilly's revenue in the Chinese market increased by 73% year-on-year. The global map of Tilpotide is accelerating its expansion.
The rise of Tilpotide is a classic case of technology route selection, business strategy, and execution. But more importantly, it not only accumulates wealth for Lilly, but also freedom of choice.
03. Diversified Chess Game
When a product contributes 65% of a company's revenue, any rational manager would think the same question: What next?
When answering with courtesy, spend the money.
Since 2026, Eli Lilly has completed 12 M&A transactions with a cumulative amount exceeding $28 billion. According to Biopharma Dive's statistics, Eli Lilly contributed a quarter of the global pharmaceutical industry's M&A transactions this year. This number even exceeds the total expenditure of Lilly's mergers and acquisitions in the past five years.
More noteworthy is the shift in merger and acquisition strategies.
Lilly's BD once centered on four core areas - diabetes, cancer, neuroscience, and autoimmune diseases. But this year, this' constraint 'has been broken. The most typical example is vaccines.
In the Lilly pipeline, the presence of vaccines is almost non-existent. The last time we took the initiative to expand our vaccine business was in the 1950s. But on May 26th, Eli Lilly announced the acquisition of three vaccine companies - Curevo, LimmaTech Biologics, and Vaccine Company - within a day, with a total transaction value of up to $3.8 billion.
Three companies each have their own plans. Curevo's core product is a herpes zoster vaccine, equipped with a new generation of synthetic adjuvants. Phase II clinical trials have shown an immune response comparable to GSK's Shingrix, but with significantly improved tolerability - Shingrix had global sales of £ 3.558 billion in 2025, but its weakness lies in poor tolerability. LimmaTech is targeting the Staphylococcus aureus vaccine, which has not yet been approved globally and is a huge unmet clinical need. Vaccine Company is betting on the EB virus vaccine, which is closely related to multiple sclerosis and various malignant tumors, but remains a blank slate.
Daniel Skovronsky, Chief Science Officer of Eli Lilly, said that these acquisitions reflect a strategy of "preventing diseases from the source, rather than treating their symptoms".
But Lilly's acquisition list goes far beyond vaccines.
In February, it acquired Orna Therapeutics for up to $2.4 billion, a circular RNA therapy company that primarily utilizes LNP vector technology to develop in vivo CAR-T therapy. In March, it acquired sleep drug developer Centessa Pharmaceuticals for up to $7.8 billion. In April, it acquired cancer drug development company Kelonia Therapeutics for up to $7 billion. In the second quarter, we also completed the acquisition of Ajax Therapeutics, a developer of JAK2 inhibitors.
In July, Eli Lilly acquired the psychedelic drug development company AtaiBekley for a prepayment of $2.8 billion. This is Lilly's 12th merger and acquisition transaction, and also its first foray into the field of psychedelic drugs.
From CAR-T to ADC, from pain to vaccines, from sleep disorders to psychedelic drugs, Lilly's acquisition list covers almost all fields.
But this is not a blind 'casting a wide net'.
According to the management of Eli Lilly, current mergers and acquisitions tend to focus on laying out assets that already have clinical validation foundations. Among the 12 transactions this year, except for a few platform based acquisitions, the rest have already entered clinical core projects. This transformation stems from past lessons learned - too many early platform projects ultimately failed to transform into real products.
Jacob Van Naarden, President and Head of Corporate Business Development at Eli Lilly and Company, said, "Don't be surprised if the company launches more projects that may not align with past practices. Nothing in a transaction is absolutely impossible
This' anything is possible 'attitude is backed by a trillion dollar market value pharmaceutical company's foresight.
The lessons of history are cruel. Both AbbVie's Xiumeile and Merck's Keytruda have once topped the global "drug king" throne, but with patent expiration and competitor launches, even the most successful products will eventually enter a growth slowdown stage. Lilly clearly does not want to repeat the same mistake.
At the same time, Lilly is also increasing its manufacturing capabilities. The financial report mentions that the company has committed to allocating an additional $4.5 billion to expand its manufacturing base in Indiana. The simultaneous expansion of production capacity and pipeline expansion is being carried out to prepare for the continuous increase in volume and the launch of new products in the future.
After 150 years, the future of Lilly has never been so bright. But behind this brightness lies a clear understanding: no medicine can sustain a company forever. True longevity comes from the ability to constantly search for the next peptide.
And Lilly is using a huge amount of funds to buy this ability.
Reference materials:
Lilly reports second-quarter 2026 financial results, raises full-year guidance, and highlights continued growth and pipeline progress; Lilly
Eli Lilly raises 2026 outlook again as Q2 soars past estimates; Pharmaceutical Technology
StockWatch: Lilly Rises on Revenue Leap; Analysts High on Krystal Despite Revenue Miss; GEN
Three mergers and acquisitions in a day: Behind the 'killing frenzy' of Eli Lilly; Same freehand brushwork
Lilly, 1 trillion; Same freehand brushwork
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