The J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference (JPM) has always been a golden window for announcing major collaborations and acquisitions. Almost every leader of multinational corporations (MNCs) will talk about their "shopping" plans to some extent in speeches and interviews.

Christopher Viehbacher, CEO of Biogen, clearly stated that the company is seeking assets to support near-term growth while exploring opportunities to strengthen early-stage research.

Gilead Sciences' HIV product sales exceeded $20 billion last year. Daniel O'Day, the company's CEO, said it plans to launch 7 new drugs over the next 7 years and is actively pursuing mid-sized and small transactions to enhance its existing product portfolio.

Sanofi has been highly active in recent months. It acquired Blueprint Medicines for $9.1 billion, followed by Dynavax Technologies for $2.2 billion, and entered into a licensing partnership with AI biotech firm Huashen Zhiyao earlier this year.

Paul Hudson, CEO of Sanofi, further revealed at JPM that the company intends to add "8 to 12 high-quality programs" to its pipeline and has scheduled numerous relevant meetings during the conference. He admitted, "Our mid-to-late-stage pipeline is decent, but sustaining its stability requires continuous external in-licensing, which is no easy task given intense competition. We are focusing on programs expected to launch around 2028-2030".

Pfizer, which recently acquired Metsera for $10 billion, stated that its key priority for 2026 is to maximize the value of recent transactions and achieve the expected R&D milestones.

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) is also focused on assets that can drive near-term growth. Chris Boern, the company's CEO, noted that BMS is casting a wide net when seeking transaction opportunities while concentrating on familiar therapeutic areas.

Eli Lilly, the first pharmaceutical company to surpass a $1 trillion market capitalization, has prepared a €15 billion acquisition of French biotech firm Abivax ahead of the JPM conference and is currently awaiting guidance from the French Ministry of Finance.

Regarding Revolution Medicines, which is reportedly being targeted by Merck & Co. for a $30 billion acquisition, Mark Goldsmith, the company's CEO, did not respond to the acquisition speculation. However, he emphasized, "Our goal is to build impactful products, not an extensive product line".

In fact, new transaction announcements emerge almost daily during the JPM conference. Novartis announced licensing agreements with China-based firms Zhongcheng Quan Tai and Saishen Medicine on the same day. AbbVie also entered into a licensing deal with 荣昌 Biotech for its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, with a potential total transaction value reaching 5.6 billion yuan.

Nevertheless, the much-anticipated "mega-deals" have not materialized at this year's JPM conference so far.

Andy Plump, Head of R&D at Takeda Pharmaceuticals, expressed slight surprise at the lackluster transaction activity this year in an interview. He said, "Overall, it is not unexpected. Transaction activities in the industry have actually been ongoing over the past few months".

Behind the urgent business development (BD) demands of major pharmaceutical companies lies an unprecedented "patent cliff".

According to an analysis by RBC Capital Markets, over the next decade, large pharmaceutical enterprises will face approximately $400 billion in revenue losses due to patent expirations. Even when factoring in the free cash flow available to mitigate sales declines, there remains a gap of more than $200 billion, which must be filled through BD initiatives and mergers & acquisitions (M&A).

Among this projection, the year 2028 alone will see nearly $100 billion in losses. This imminent pressure is the fundamental driving force behind the aggressive "asset shopping spree" of all multinational corporations (MNCs).

This widespread anxiety has directly shaped buyers' preferences. Especially against the backdrop of evolving regulatory policies, "certainty" has become the most valuable currency. Capital is clearly flowing toward late-stage assets with robust clinical data and well-defined approval pathways.

A JPM report indicates that in 2025, large pharmaceutical companies still favored late-stage licensing deals, offering significantly higher upfront payments for phase III clinical assets. Taking oncology assets as an example, the median upfront payment for phase II oncology assets between 2024 and 2025 was approximately $150 million, while that for phase III assets exceeded $1 billion.

However, as all MNCs rush to pursue late-stage assets, project prices have been driven up rapidly, and competition has intensified to a fever pitch. The bidding war between Pfizer and Novo Nordisk for Metsera is a prime example. Fueled by the rivalry between these two major MNCs, the valuation of this acquisition surged from an initial approximately $7.3 billion to $10 billion.

Consequently, some buyers have begun refocusing their attention on early-stage assets. Despite the higher risks, these assets may offer more attractive pricing and potentially greater returns.

A report by Stifel points out that as transaction prices rise, pharmaceutical companies will be willing to take on more risks in their BD and M&A activities in 2026. Compared to 2024 and 2025, it is expected that more pharmaceutical firms will engage in preclinical-stage acquisitions in 2026, leading to more robust M&A activity.

Amid the MNCs' "asset shopping spree", "Chinese assets" have emerged as an unavoidable keyword.

Data from Pharmcube shows that in 2025, the total value of overseas licensing deals for China's innovative drugs reached $135.655 billion, with $7 billion in upfront payments and a total of 157 transactions—all setting historical records.

However, breaking down the transaction composition, the vast majority of this over-$100 billion total was contributed by just 55 companies. Among them, the top 10 enterprises by transaction volume captured roughly 60% of the total value through a small number of blockbuster deals. In stark contrast, as many as 22 companies recorded individual transaction values of less than $1 billion; while accounting for nearly half of the total number of enterprises, their combined transaction volume accounted for a mere 7% of the overall total.

Chinese companies are also gaining increasing visibility at JPM. According to statistics from CSC Financial Co., Ltd., the companies presenting at the main venue include three CXO firms from the WuXi AppTec group (WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, WuXi XDC), as well as BeiGene, Zai Lab, Ascentage Pharma, and Legend Biotech. Additionally, 17 other Chinese companies such as Tigermed, Hengrui Medicine, and Bio-Thera Solutions will participate in the Asia-Pacific special session. As a whole, China's biopharmaceutical industry is stepping onto the center stage of the global industry with a more systematic and diversified approach.

Price advantage is often cited as a key attribute of Chinese assets.

Eric Tokat, Co-President of Centerview, noted the "lower cost" of Chinese assets at an Endpoints event. However, he also emphasized that pharmaceutical companies do not acquire a firm simply because of its low price; acquisition decisions are always driven by high-quality scientific research outcomes.

Nevertheless, the R&D stage also plays a critical role. If a pharmaceutical company has to choose between a drug developed by a U.S. firm that has entered phase II clinical trials (but comes with a higher price tag) and a similar drug developed by a Chinese company that has just entered clinical trials (with a lower price), in most cases, the company is likely to opt for the former. Despite the higher cost, a more advanced clinical stage typically translates to a more predictable R&D pathway and lower uncertainties.

If AI-driven drug discovery at JPM still carried a whiff of conceptualization in the past two years, by 2026, it has thoroughly evolved into a mainstream narrative. The most eye-catching collaboration on day one was undoubtedly the new partnership announced by Eli Lilly and NVIDIA. The two parties plan to invest over $1 billion in the next five years to establish a new joint AI innovation lab, aiming to build a continuously learning AI system to accelerate new drug discovery.

This collaboration represents a further expansion of Eli Lilly's earlier "AI Factory" initiative. Last year, Eli Lilly announced a joint effort with NVIDIA to build the most powerful supercomputing and AI drug discovery factory in the pharmaceutical sector. Powered by over 1,000 NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra GPU chips and connected via a unified high-speed network, this supercomputer is capable of rapid learning and iteration. Scientists can leverage this supercomputer to conduct millions of parallel experiments in a virtual environment for training and testing AI models.

As a representative of AI-driven biotech firms, the management team of Insilico Medicine will also attend this year's JPM. They will share updates on multiple AI-discovered projects that have entered clinical stages, including Rentosertib (ISM001-055). This TNIK inhibitor, discovered and designed entirely by AI for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), has released positive top-line results from its Phase IIa clinical trial.

Recently, Insilico Medicine also announced an $888 million R&D collaboration with Servier. Leveraging its proprietary AI platform Pharma.AI, the partnership will focus on challenging targets in oncology to develop novel drugs.

Pfizer has also stated that it will seek to scale up AI applications across all business areas—a reflection of the industry-wide consensus. The question now is no longer whether to adopt AI, but how to leverage it to maximize efficiency.

A Bloomberg report indicates that drug R&D is undergoing disruptive transformation: AI is expected to take on 10-30% of preclinical work in the future, reduce average R&D costs by 16%, and potentially shorten new drug time-to-market by 6-18 months.

This is not merely about cost savings—it is about racing against time. In the pharmaceutical industry, time is money. Bloomberg analyst Andrew Galler commented, "Bringing drugs to market faster can significantly boost their net present value and effectively extend their commercial exclusivity period." For pharmaceutical companies grappling with the patent cliff, a few months' acceleration could translate into hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in revenue difference.

Surveys show that a staggering 94% of industry respondents plan to reduce reliance on animal models for preclinical research, with AI models emerging as a key alternative—a trend strongly encouraged by the FDA. AI is gradually evolving from an auxiliary tool to an indispensable component of "standard operating procedures" in certain R&D workflows.

AI applications may narrow the R&D speed gap between Chinese and U.S. companies. However, Galler pointed out that with current AI capabilities, Chinese firms still maintain a competitive edge in R&D speed. How long this advantage can persist will be a critical factor shaping the industry's future landscape.

— Final Thoughts —

The buzz of JPM will eventually fade, but the new year has just begun. As the patent cliff looms closer, fierce bidding wars for high-quality assets are inevitable, and MNCs will likely increase bets on early-stage research. Chinese innovative drug developers will also evolve from mere "suppliers" to indispensable "collaborators" embedded in the global R&D ecosystem.

In San Francisco, cups of coffee are constantly refilled, and the "shopping lists" of MNCs stretch far into the future.