Within its current portfolio,the oncology business is undoubtedly Johnson & Johnson’s most reliable growth driver.

J&J CEO Joaquin Duato stated publicly on the call:The company aims to become the world’s largest oncology player by 2030,with $50 billion in oncology revenue.

Judging by revenue performance alone,this target is not “wishful thinking.”In 2025,Darzalex — a multiple myeloma therapy —generated approximately $14.4 billion in sales,nearly matching the entire immunology segment.Crucially, despite being on the market for years,the product remains in a growth phase.

Darzalex’s success stems not only from efficacy databut also from a systematic lifecycle management strategy.

Darzalex Faspro, the subcutaneous formulation approved in 2020,significantly shortens administration time and improves patient compliance,strengthening its competitiveness in clinical pathways.In January 2026,the FDA approved Darzalex Faspro in combination with bortezomib, lenalidomide, and dexamethasonefor newly diagnosed patients ineligible for autologous stem cell transplant —meaning the product is moving further into earlier lines of treatment.

In short,multiple myeloma therapy is shifting from the single-agent erato an era of combination and stratification.Rather than replacing Darzalex with new products,Johnson & Johnson is building a treatment ecosystem around it.

Tecvayli and Carvykti form the core extensions of this ecosystem.

As the first approved BCMA/CD3 bispecific T-cell engager,Tecvayli has demonstrated significant survival benefits in relapsed/refractory patients.Phase III results released in January showedthe bispecific reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 71%,and the risk of death by 40%.

Last December,the MajesTEC-3 trial confirmed that,in patients with multiple myeloma who had received 1–3 prior lines of therapy,the combination of Tecvayli and Darzalex was significantly superior to conventional combination therapy:it reduced the risk of death by 54%,and improved progression-free survival by an extraordinary 83%.

Based on these results,the FDA granted breakthrough therapy designation to Johnson & Johnson under the Priority Review Voucher pilot program.

Carvykti, meanwhile, represents a high-end cell therapy path.After its label was expanded to earlier relapsed settings,it has ramped up rapidly.In 2025, this CAR‑T therapy achieved blockbuster status,generating $1.887 billion in revenue — up 95.95% year-on-year.

Its deep footprint in hematologic malignancieshas given Johnson & Johnson full-spectrum coverage in multiple myeloma,from monoclonal antibodies and bispecifics to CAR‑T.This systemic advantage will be hard to challenge in the near term.

At the same time,J&J is expanding its oncology presence into solid tumors,especially lung cancer.

In 2024, the FDA approved the combination of Rybrevant and Lazcluzefor EGFR-mutated non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).Phase III data released in December 2025 showedthis combination significantly improved overall survivalin Asian patients with EGFR-mutated NSCLC.

Johnson & Johnson notedthis is the first and only chemotherapy-free combination regimento demonstrate an overall survival benefit over osimertinib in the first-line setting.

The lung cancer market is far larger than hematologic malignancies.If this combination continues to deliver clinical advantages in real-world practice,J&J will gain a second oncology growth curve.

In addition,through the acquisition of Halda Therapeutics for its RIPTAC platform,and the approval of Inlexzo in bladder cancer,J&J is building a pipeline of novel mechanisms for technological iteration over the next decade.

Unsurprisingly,J&J’s oncology business will be its brightest growth engine in 2026and a core pillar of its $100-billion revenue goal.

In sharp contrast to the surging oncology segment,Johnson & Johnson’s immunology business has not yet fully turned the corner.

2026 marks the first full year after Stelara lost exclusivity.With biosimilars entering the market,a decline in Stelara revenue is almost inevitable —sparking market doubts over whether other products can fill the void.

Stelara was once the absolute backbone of J&J’s immunology portfolio.First approved in 2008,this IL‑12/IL‑23 inhibitor has been widely usedto treat psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ulcerative colitis, and other conditions.In 2022, its global sales surpassed $10 billion for the first time.

However, the boom was short-lived.Stelara remained at the $10-billion sales level for only three years.In 2025, hit by the patent cliff,sales plummeted to $6.078 billion — a 41.3% year-on-year drop.

As CEO, Duato acknowledged that “the Stelara loss is real,”but emphasized that J&J’s 2026 outlook “accounts for this impact.”

Rather than searching for “the next Stelara,”J&J’s response is to reshape its product portfolio structureand reduce reliance on a single product.Behind this shift is a clear understanding of the evolving competitive paradigm in pharma.

In an era where biosimilars rapidly erode mature targets,replicating a Stelara-style single-product blockbuster is nearly impossible.The real moat comes from a pipeline matrixthat can consistently deliver differentiated therapiesand diversify risk across indications.

Tremfya is clearly viewed by Johnson & Johnsonas a key pillar in rebuilding its immunology business.

While unlikely to reach Stelara’s historical peak,Tremfya is evolving from a “psoriasis drug”into an “inflammatory bowel disease franchise asset.”

In the fiercely competitive ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease markets,Tremfya has carved out a differentiated position against AbbVie’s Skyrizi,Eli Lilly’s Omvoh, and even J&J’s own Stelara —by offering both subcutaneous and intravenous options for continuous maintenance therapy.

For Crohn’s patients on lifelong treatment,ease of administration is not just a convenience;it is a critical factor affecting adherence and long-term outcomes.In ulcerative colitis,Tremfya’s share of new patient starts already exceeds 50% in the IL‑23 class.

A similar strategy can be seen in the oral psoriasis therapyIcotrokinra, an IL‑23 receptor antagonist.

Psoriasis is one of the most crowded therapeutic areas globally.Products such as Tremfya, Skyrizi, Cosentyx, and Taltzhave raised the bar for targeted therapy efficacy extremely high.Yet all these star drugs face the same invisible barrier:the psychological barrier and long-term compliance toll of injectable administration.

Johnson & Johnson revealedits New Drug Application for Icotrokinra to the FDAis supported by an “unprecedented” data package:four Phase III studies all met their primary endpoints,showed superiority in head-to-head comparisons with the oral TYK2 inhibitor Sotyktu,and included assessments for hard-to-treat areas.

An even deeper strategic intent lies in J&J’s positioning of Nipocalimab, an FcRn inhibitor.

Instead of competing for share in crowded markets,Nipocalimab aims to set the rules in under-explored territories.After generalized myasthenia gravis,Nipocalimab delivered positive results in January 2026:a Phase IIb study in systemic lupus erythematosus met its primary endpoint,with Phase III trials now on the horizon.

More importantly,the platform potential of the FcRn pathway is emerging:successive expansions into maternal-fetal immune disorders,rheumatic diseases, autoimmune hemolytic anemia, and other indicationsare expected to multiply Nipocalimab’s market potential.

If oncology and immunology dominate Johnson & Johnson’s short-term narrative,then the company’s emerging focus on neurosciencerepresents an even longer-term strategic bet.

Its spending speaks volumes.

In early 2025,J&J acquired Intra-Cellular Therapies for $14.6 billion —a rare large-scale cross-core acquisition.Notably, just six months earlier at BIO 2024,Nauman Shah, Head of Global Business Development at Janssen Research & Development,had struck a cautious tone on large-scale business development deals.

Did J&J reverse its deal strategy? Not exactly.During the 2025 JPMorgan Healthcare Conference,Duato reaffirmed that,while the company has the financial strength,a high-priced deal like Intra-Cellular remains the exception rather than the rule.

The key to understanding this anomalyis neuroscience — the emerging market J&J now places alongside oncology and immunology.

For a long time,J&J’s innovative drug revenue has been highly concentrated in oncology and immunology.Although neuroscience boasts star products such as Spravato,it has never formed a scaled, systematic business unit.

Intra-Cellular brings Johnson & Johnson a new revenue source:the oral therapy Caplyta.Approved as monotherapy or in combination with lithium/valproate,it treats schizophrenia and bipolar depression.

In Q4 2025, Caplyta sales reached $249 million.The real inflection point came in November 2025,when the FDA approved it as an adjunctive therapy for major depressive disorder —a critical step from a “specialty drug” to a “broad-indication medicine.”

The market logic for psychiatric disorders is clear:the major depressive disorder market is far larger than schizophrenia,but also far more competitive.Caplyta’s differentiated advantages are twofold:First, it is not a traditional SSRI antidepressant;its novel mechanism offers clinical value for treatment-resistant patients.Second, it has accumulated extensive real-world data,lowering payer access barriers compared with entirely new molecular entities.

In January, Johnson & Johnson released updated Phase III data:Caplyta combined with an antidepressantachieved significantly higher remission rates at six weeksthan placebo plus an antidepressant.This benefit was sustained for six months in an open-label extension study.

As J&J integrates Intra-Cellular’s pipeline,the strategic depth of its neuroscience business is taking shape.Beyond Caplyta,a Phase II candidate, ITI‑1284, is viewed as another potential blockbuster.It is being developed for two indications:generalized anxiety disorder,and psychosis and agitation associated with Alzheimer’s disease.

It is clear that,whether expanding beyond oncology and immunologyor betting on diverse indications within neuroscience,Johnson & Johnson wants to avoid being “one-sided.”

“We are different from other companies.We do not focus on one or two growth drivers,”Duato emphasized during the recent earnings call.

While J&J does not face the steepest patent cliff in the industry,it is simultaneously absorbing patent losses across multiple mature drugs.According to RBC Capital Markets,between 2025 and 2035,Johnson & Johnson ranks third in the industry in at-risk revenue from patents,behind only Merck & Co. and Novo Nordisk.

Diversified 布局 to hedge diversified pressure —this is J&J’s solution to its challengesand the underlying logic for breaking through $100 billion in revenue.The question remains:Will growth be enough to offset patent losses?

2026 will remain a pressured year for Johnson & Johnson:the full impact of Stelara’s loss of exclusivity will unfold,generic competition for Simponi and Opsumit is just beginning,and unresolved risk variables include Carvykti’s capacity constraints,Tecvayli’s market penetration speed,and Tremfya’s head-to-head battle with AbbVie’s Skyrizi in inflammatory bowel disease.

Conversely,if Johnson & Johnson ultimately crosses the thresholdand completes its structural transformation,$100 billion in revenue will be only the starting pointfor the giant’s new narrative —one that points toward even greater heights.