Looking at Bayer’s pharmaceutical portfolio, it is not short of competitive products.

For more than a decade, the anticoagulant Xarelto has been one of the giant’s core products. Co-developed with Johnson & Johnson, it has long held a major position in the global anticoagulant market.

But times have changed. As key patents expired, generic competition quickly entered the market.In 2025, Xarelto sales plunged 33% to around €2.3 billion, with a 39% drop in the fourth quarter alone.

This decline stemmed not only from lower volume but, more importantly, from a rapid collapse in pricing. After generics arrive, originator drugs often must slash prices to maintain share.Oelrich stated bluntly on the earnings call that the impact of biosimilars and generics comes more from price than volume—and once prices are pushed down, they are very hard to restore.

A similar trend has hit another core product, Eylea.

A long-standing star in age-related macular degeneration, Eylea’s growth has slowed markedly amid rising biosimilar competition and the emergence of next-generation long-acting therapies.

In 2025, Eylea sales fell to approximately €3.1 billion. Bayer tried to extend its lifecycle with an 8mg long-acting version. Yet in the fiercely competitive ophthalmology market, this strategy can only partially cushion the impact.

Management expects further sharp declines for Xarelto and Eylea in 2026:

• Eylea sales could drop 20%–25%
• Xarelto could fall 35%–40%

At the same time, Bayer wants to convey a different narrative: its pharma business is resilient enough to maintain stability despite generic pressure and is staging a comeback.

Two pillars support this logic.

First, Nubeqa, an androgen receptor inhibitor for prostate cancer.Launched in 2019, it has expanded indications and penetrated major global markets. Bayer calls it one of the best-performing oncology drugs in company history, now launched in more than 90 countries.In 2025, Nubeqa sales surged 57% to €2.4 billion.

Second, Kerendia, a novel nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist for chronic kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes.Positioned by management as a “blockbuster in the making,” it generated €829 million in 2025, up 79% year-on-year—with an exceptional 93% increase in Q4.

Bayer is also advancing several newer launches, including Beyonttra for cardiomyopathy (in partnership with BridgeBio) and Lynkuet for menopausal hot flashes. While still small in scale, they are viewed as important future growth supplements.

Internally, Bayer sees 2026 as a transition year.If new products maintain strong growth and the decline of older drugs stabilizes, the pharma division could return to mid-single-digit growth around 2027.

But to complete this transformation, Bayer needs more than just new drugs.Deeper changes are unfolding in its organizational structure.

Since 2023, Anderson has pushed a management reform called DSO (Dynamic Shared Ownership).Its core idea: cut traditional hierarchies and delegate decision-making from management to frontline teams.To achieve this, the company has eliminated numerous management roles—over 1,000 positions in 2025 alone.

In a multinational with nearly 100,000 employees, such restructuring is rare.But Anderson considers it essential.

He has criticized that in the old Bayer system, top managers were separated from customers by a dozen layers of bureaucracy, which stifled innovation speed.Under DSO, Bayer is forming thousands of autonomous teams, each setting goals and delivering projects in 90-day cycles.

Bayer hopes this will restore the agility of a biotech company.

Perhaps the most dramatic story in Bayer’s pharma division in recent years is the factor XIa inhibitor asundexian.

Traditional anticoagulants effectively prevent thrombosis but increase bleeding risk.The medical field has long sought a strategy that inhibits clotting while minimizing bleeding—and factor XIa inhibitors represent that hope.

In theory, factor XIa plays a key role in thrombosis but a limited role in normal hemostasis, potentially enabling the ideal profile: anticoagulation without excessive bleeding.

Bayer invested heavily in asundexian.In 2022, it launched two large Phase III trials—OCEANIC-AF and OCEANIC-STROKE—enrolling around 30,000 patients, one of the largest cardiovascular clinical programs in Bayer’s history.

Unfortunately, the program soon suffered a major setback.

In 2023, the OCEANIC-AF trial in atrial fibrillation was terminated early for insufficient efficacy.Asundexian proved inferior to Eliquis in preventing stroke and systemic embolism.For a large cardiovascular asset in late-stage development, this result was close to a death sentence.

The market reacted sharply. Multiple banks downgraded its commercial potential, with some predicting its previously estimated €5 billion peak sales would shrink drastically.

Equally important, the setback temporarily put Bayer behind Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) in the factor XIa race.BMS, partnering with J&J, is developing milvexian, seen as a leading competitor.

But fortunes shifted back in Bayer’s favor.

In February 2026, top-line data from OCEANIC-STROKE showed that, on top of standard antiplatelet therapy (e.g., aspirin), asundexian reduced the risk of recurrent stroke by 26%.Major bleeding was just 1.9%, nearly identical to the 1.7% seen with placebo.

This result is highly meaningful for the long-standing challenge of balancing efficacy and safety in anticoagulation.Study lead Dr. Mike Sharma, a stroke expert at McMaster University, called it a scientific advance the field has pursued for decades.

Capital markets repriced the drug accordingly.Bayer’s stock rose following the release, and multiple institutions re-rated its potential.Bank of America analysts now see asundexian reaching €3 billion in annual peak sales.

Against the backdrop of the patent cliff, this revenue potential is highly attractive for Bayer.

Moreover, asundexian’s success has reignited confidence in the factor XIa inhibitor class.Previously, several companies faced setbacks in cardiovascular indications; even milvexian missed its primary endpoint in acute coronary syndrome.

Against this backdrop, asundexian’s future is critical.

If approved and widely adopted for secondary stroke prevention, it could not only deliver a new revenue stream but reshape the competitive landscape of the anticoagulant market.

Competition remains intense.J&J and BMS expect key milvexian data around 2027.Whoever achieves a better efficacy–safety balance may define the market.

In many ways, asundexian is more than a new drug—it is a symbol of Bayer’s R&D credibility.A successful launch and broad adoption would help restore market faith in its innovative capabilities.

To understand Bayer today, one cannot avoid the €63 billion acquisition of Monsanto in 2018.

The deal was then one of the largest in agribusiness history.Bayer’s strategic goal: build a fully integrated agricultural platform covering seeds, pesticides, and digital farming to dominate the global agrochemical market.

Shortly after completion, however, a wave of U.S. litigation over Roundup erupted.Tens of thousands of plaintiffs claimed the product caused cancer, flooding U.S. courts.Bayer has paid or reserved over $10 billion for related cases, with billions more set aside for future settlements.

To this day, the company still faces more than 50,000 pending lawsuits.To end the long-running dispute, Bayer proposed a $7.25 billion class-action settlement to resolve existing and future claims.But the plan still needs court approval and faces uncertainty from U.S. Supreme Court rulings.

As a result, investors remain cautious on Bayer’s valuation.No matter how promising the pharma pipeline, capital markets are unlikely to assign a higher premium while litigation risk persists.

The Monsanto acquisition is widely seen as one of the pharma industry’s most cautionary M&A tales.Shareholders warned of integration strain and legal risk at the time, but Bayer pushed ahead to compete with DowDuPont and Syngenta through scale.

The consequences proved far more complex than expected.

Beyond legal troubles, Monsanto’s profitability has suffered from cyclical downturns.Recent declines in agchem prices have weakened Crop Science earnings, further dragging down group performance.

Against this backdrop, “firefighter” Anderson’s task is exceptionally difficult.He must fix internal problems and rebuild investor confidence.Mass layoffs and restructuring aim to deliver €2 billion in cost savings by the end of 2026.

Bayer is also re-evaluating its business structure.

Market rumors have repeatedly suggested a three-way split:pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and consumer health as separate listed companies.

But management is cautious, viewing large-scale structural separation as unrealistic before litigation is resolved.

Bayer’s longed-for comeback remains a complex and lengthy process.

On one side, a new growth curve is emerging from drugs like Nubeqa, Kerendia, and the potential blockbuster asundexian.On the other, the company must continue resolving the legal and financial legacy of Monsanto.

For this century-old giant, 2026 carries high expectations.If new products continue to scale, asundexian advances smoothly, and legal risks recede, Bayer could return to growth in the coming years.

But if any link breaks, this recovery could be delayed once again.