In the Second Half of the ADC Era, What Cards Does China’s Innovative Drug Industry Hold?
Update time:
2026-04-10 08:12
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Major deals strike the ADC sector once again.
On April 7, Gilead Sciences announced the acquisition of Germany-based Tubulis for a total transaction value of $5 billion, including an upfront payment of $3.15 billion and potential additional payments of up to $1.85 billion. Through this acquisition, Gilead will gain Tubulis’ ADC pipeline — including TUB-040 targeting NaPi2b — and its Tubutecan technology platform.
Back in 2020, Gilead acquired Immunomedics for a massive $21 billion to secure the ADC drug Trodelvy, yet its subsequent performance fell short of expectations. Gilead’s renewed move underscores its unwavering determination to dominate the ADC track.
To date, multinational corporations (MNCs) have largely completed their 布局 in the ADC space, forming a relatively clear competitive landscape.
According to data from PharmaCube, 20 ADC drugs have been approved globally. Among the 10 products that disclosed 2025 sales figures, their combined revenue exceeded $16.8 billion. Frost & Sullivan projects that the global ADC market will expand to $66.2 billion by 2030, leaving enormous room for growth over the next five years as the sector continues its rapid expansion.
Based on 2025 sales data, the top three ADC products — Enhertu, Padcev, and Kadcyla — together captured over 60% of the global market share. Among them, Enhertu generated annual sales of approximately $4.983 billion, roughly 50% higher than the second-ranked Padcev in the same period.
China is the world’s largest exporter of novel ADC assets. Over the past few years, MNCs have strategically secured their positions in this sector through large-scale acquisitions of Chinese ADC assets, and the pecking order of domestic flagship companies has largely taken shape. A more pragmatic question has thus emerged: Where lies the next chapter for China’s ADC assets?
TONACEA
01
The Global ADC Landscape Takes Shape
One out of every two global ADC clinical trials is initiated by a Chinese company.
Data from Evaluate shows that 51% of global ADC clinical trials are sponsored by Chinese pharmaceutical firms. For certain high-profile targets, Chinese-developed ADC candidates account for more than 60% of the global total.
China’s novel ADC assets have become a flagship calling card for domestic innovative drugs going global.
The rise of China’s ADC sector has formed a mutually constructive dynamic with MNCs’ strategic 布局. MNCs lock in their ADC presence by acquiring Chinese assets at scale; meanwhile, which Chinese firms are selected by MNCs — and when — largely defines their status as industry leaders.
Merck & Co. stands among the most aggressive MNCs in ADC 布局.
In 2022, Merck struck three ADC deals with Kelun-Biotech, integrating 9 ADC pipelines into its portfolio for a total transaction value exceeding $11.8 billion. Its core asset, the TROP2 ADC sacituzumab govitecan (sac-TMT), has secured 4 approved indications in China, with sales reaching approximately 302 million RMB in the first half of 2025.
Merck’s aggressive push stems deeply from the 2028 patent cliff facing its flagship product pembrolizumab (Keytruda). In 2025, Keytruda’s annual sales surpassed $31.6 billion, nearly half of Merck’s total revenue in the same period.
ADC drugs are viewed by Merck as a strategic pillar to fill this growth gap. Marjorie Green, Global Head of Oncology Clinical Development at Merck, stated plainly:
“TROP-2 ADC is poised to become Merck’s core ‘anchor product’ following the Keytruda patent cliff.”
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) is not far behind, securing a stake in China’s ADC rising star, BioTheryX.
In December 2023, BMS obtained global rights to iza-bren (BL-B01D1, an EGFR×HER3 bispecific ADC) independently developed by BioTheryX, with upfront and near-term payments totaling $1.3 billion and a total potential deal value of up to $8.4 billion — setting a global record for the total licensing value of a single ADC asset.
Roche, the original leader in ADCs, is also increasing its allocation to Chinese assets.
In January 2026, Alphamab Oncology entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with Roche for YL201 (a B7H3 ADC), securing $570 million in upfront and near-term milestone payments.
Additionally, Pfizer acquired Seagen, thereby gaining rights to Disitamab Vedotin from Rongchang Bio, which was licensed to Seagen in 2021.
According to PharmaCube’s NextPharma database, the world’s top 10 MNCs have completed approximately 20 ADC-related transactions with Chinese pharmaceutical companies to date.
Over the past five years, China’s ADC sector has achieved exponential growth in pipeline numbers, deal values, and clinical progress. However, as the leading players consolidate and the landscape stabilizes, the investment window for this track is rapidly narrowing.
Overall, MNCs have shifted from a “broad net-casting” strategy to a “careful selection” approach when evaluating Chinese ADC assets. Projects with differentiated clinical data, proven clinical progress, or unique technology platforms can still command premium valuations, while simple me-too molecules struggle to attract MNC interest.
TONACEA
02
A Pivotal Year for “IO + ADC”
Although the deal window is narrowing, the value realization of ADCs is far from over. A larger battlefield is just beginning.
“IO + ADC” has emerged as the widely recognized future backbone of oncology therapy, accelerating ADCs’ penetration from later lines to frontline treatment. This shift is transformative: ADCs will expand from a niche market in late-line therapy to a large patient population in first-line treatment.
A research report from Huafu Securities notes that 2026 will be a key catalytic year for IO-ADC combinations. PD-1/VEGF and PD-L1/VEGF bispecific antibodies combined with ADCs, led by Chinese biotechs, have entered Phase I/II studies and are expected to launch global Phase III trials between 2026 and 2027, potentially establishing new first-line standards of care in certain cancers.
At the 2026 JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, leading oncology-focused MNCs centered their strategies on IO and ADC therapies, with numerous Chinese innovative drugs in the spotlight.
Lung cancer remains a fiercely contested battleground in oncology.
In November 2025, Kelun-Biotech announced that the Phase III trial (OptiTROP-Lung05) of sacituzumab govitecan in combination with Keytruda for first-line treatment of PD-L1-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) met its primary endpoint in a pre-specified PFS interim analysis, with a favorable trend observed in OS. This marks the world’s first Phase III study of a PD-(L)1 + ADC combination to achieve the primary endpoint in first-line NSCLC.
Merck has since initiated 16 global Phase III trials for sacituzumab govitecan across lung, breast, gastric, gynecologic cancers, and other tumor types.
The landscape for first-line breast cancer therapy is also becoming clear.
In February 2026, Innovent Biologics announced that its HER2 ADC IBI354 dosed its first Chinese patient in a pivotal Phase III study for first-line HER2-positive breast cancer. In the same month, Henlius reported that its HER2 monoclonal antibody HLX22 combined with its HER2 ADC HLX87 dosed the first patient in a Phase II/III study.
In triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), BioTheryX announced in February 2026 that an interim analysis of the Phase III trial of iza-bren for locally advanced or metastatic TNBC showed significant prolongation of both PFS and OS, achieving dual primary endpoints. This makes iza-bren the world’s first bispecific ADC to yield positive PFS/OS results in a Phase III TNBC study.
This means the window to secure positions in first-line treatment for major cancers is closing fast. Once a Phase III study establishes a new standard of care, latecomers must conduct head-to-head trials to prove superiority, with exponentially rising costs and time barriers.
From an investment perspective, the “golden window” for ADC 布局 is indeed nearing its end. Yet this does not signal the disappearance of opportunities — only a shift in the nature of opportunity.
TONACEA
03
China’s ADCs: Breaking New Ground
A notable trend is the growing diversity of collaboration models in the ADC space. Beyond traditional overseas R&D, manufacturing, and commercialization partnerships, platform technology licensing and combination therapy development are on the rise.
Take the $13 billion partnership between QED Therapeutics and Biohaven in 2025 as an example: the collaboration covers not only ADC assets but also technology platform licensing. A landmark event, it signifies that overseas pharmaceutical firms recognize not only China’s clinical-stage assets but also its proprietary technology platforms.
This means post-window BD competition has evolved beyond individual molecules to systematic platform capabilities. Companies that build integrated strengths in core technologies — including linkers, conjugation processes, and toxin payloads — will command stronger bargaining power and wider moats.
The core bargaining chip in Alphamab Oncology’s deal with Roche is its proprietary TMALIN platform, which enables extracellular cleavage in the tumor microenvironment, expands antibody selection ranges, and delivers stronger bystander effects — the underlying technological value for which MNCs are willing to pay a premium.
Technologically, bispecific ADCs and dual-toxin ADCs are emerging as the next wave of focus.
Bispecific ADCs enhance specific tumor cell binding and internalization by targeting two distinct tumor antigens or epitopes simultaneously. BioTheryX’s iza-bren, the world’s first bispecific ADC to complete Phase III trials, serves as a benchmark in this field. Jiangsu Alphamab’s JSKN-003 (a HER2-targeting bispecific ADC) has also demonstrated high response rates and favorable safety profiles in clinical studies and has advanced to Phase III.
In dual-payload ADCs, Kanghong Pharmaceutical’s KH815 — a TROP2-targeting dual-toxin ADC — received clinical approval in Australia and China in 2025, becoming the world’s first dual-payload ADC to enter clinical development.
Meanwhile, ADCs are expanding beyond oncology into broader disease areas.
Innovent’s DB-2304 (a BDCA2 ADC) has initiated a Phase II trial for systemic lupus erythematosus, making it China’s most advanced and well-defined ADC program in autoimmune diseases.
As platform capabilities and technological iteration become new competitive anchors, MNCs’ evaluation standards are rising sharply. Today, MNCs prioritize head-to-head comparative data and robustly validated results when assessing ADC projects. Pipeline-stacking strategies relying solely on fast followership no longer win favor.
Going forward, China’s ADC global expansion will advance along two main paths:
More Phase III data will emerge from existing MNC-Chinese partnerships, validating pipeline quality.
Early-stage assets with differentiated technology platforms or novel targets may still attract targeted acquisitions by MNCs.
For Chinese ADC companies, the real test is no longer whether they can be noticed, but whether they can play an irreplaceable card at a table where the global landscape has already taken shape.
